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Michael Mauboussin has written a heap of great work over the years. I especially like his thoughts on skill and luck and the role they play in all aspects of our life. He presents a simple question to determine the role of skill and luck in an activity. Ask the… Continue Reading Luck and Skill – How can I lose on purpose?
Getswift (GSW) is a hot topic and is polarising. You believe or you do not. Nothing breeds passionate opinions like having your money on the line, probably the only thing more motivating to defend this opinion is having your ego attached. No one wants to be wrong, right? If you… Continue Reading What fact(s) would change your opinion? – Getswift
I am reluctant to add to the property debate in Australia, multiple tomes have been written on it. People attach the same fervour to talking about property as they do religion and politics. I like to keep my identity small on these things so I will offer a limited view.… Continue Reading Oz Property – Keep dancing Chucky Prince style
I don’t know what it is about my personality but as the bull market chugs along I start to feel more uncomfortable. When prices rise and people are posting about their winnings then it makes me think this game seems too easy. And it can not be that easy and it… Continue Reading Uncomfortable Odds – Altium (ALU)
One of the things I grapple with everyday is making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty. More specifically assigning probabilities to the possible outcomes. No doubt I will grapple with this until the day I die. A wise man told me on email the other day that this is… Continue Reading Uncertainty and Probability – Getswift
I was asked by a reader if I had an opinion on Nearmap (NEA), specifically the Group Portfolio Lifetime Value (LTV) which NEA calculates as $365.5m at the end of FY2017, see bottom line in their financial presentation. When you consider the market cap is around $260m maybe there is… Continue Reading Nearmap (NEA) – Reviewing their LTV calculation
Afterpay’s (APT) business model is pretty simple. APT assumes the role of the credit provider and buys from the merchant the credit risk of the merchants paying customers. The merchant pays APT 4.2% of the transaction for this. Merchants love it as they receive their money upfront and in a credit… Continue Reading Afterpay Touch (APT) – Looking through the credit cycle
Charley Ellis wrote a book years ago called Winning the Losers Game, essentially the main idea is that to win in investing we should focus on avoiding the losers. His idea was based on a book about professional tennis being a winners game, you win tennis by hitting more winners… Continue Reading Hugging the middle of the Performance Bell curve
Ordinarily I do not spend a lot of time on shares that have not made it through my first filter. Some companies are fairly obviously pretty smelly to start with and you can move on. But I thought I would start to dig deeper into Buddy after my first pass through when… Continue Reading Buddy.com – Cracking the Narrative