I used to do a lot of Macro trading, but after I had children I realised pretty quickly I can’t predict what they are going to do, so what chance do I have with predicting other complex systems? So its all been micro for awhile and it feels good not… Continue Reading I don’t do Macro anymore… but I watch.
Mark Leonard is not a name that many people are familiar with. He is not your rock star CEO that promotes his company or talks up his book. But he has build a reputation that will see him rank on par with some of the best capital allocators the world… Continue Reading Aconex (ACX) – What would Mark Leonard think?
The “Base rate” idea is simply the odds of something happening based on a sample or collection of prior evidence. Kahneman and Tversky did a lot of work on the idea of a base rate. Their work found that we tend to ignore the base rate when provided with other… Continue Reading Biotech Investing – Understanding the Base Rate
ZipMoney(ZML) provides merchants and customers an online digital alternative to a physical credit card. Zipmoney provides an interest free line of credit to consumers across a number of participating merchants. After the initial 3 month interest free period expires the outstanding customer balance reverts to an annualised 19.9% interest charge.… Continue Reading ZipMoney (ZML) – Some thoughts
We hear a lot about the Amazon threat. The narrative is Amazon is going to destroy the competition when it arrives to set up its Fulfilment centres in Australia. With the announcement yesterday of Amazon committing to opening a Fulfilment centre in Melbourne they are one step closer to offering… Continue Reading Godfrey’s (GFY) A real time Amazon example
Austin Engineering (ANG) Austin Engineering manufacturers mining equipment in Australia, South America and Asia. Since the end of the mining boom the company has recapitalised its balance sheet on a number of occasions to reduce debt. Net debt peaked around $94m in 2015. As you can see below Austin has increased… Continue Reading Austin Engineering (ANG) – Free cash flow is hard to find