Retail is tough. One thing that has previously worked in the model has been the ability to reinvest profits from existing stores and expand out a network of new stores. Walmart in the US was a great example. Bunnings has been able to build out a big box store network in… Continue Reading Baby Bunting (BBN) – Can store roll-out still work?
The book Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari builds a theory that what connects us humans is the belief in a story. The story does not have to be real, in fact more often that not it contradicts with nature. How else do you get 5,000 crusaders who have no connection… Continue Reading Narrative Fallacy – What is the story worth?
Following on from the Modern Monopolies post I will attempt to look at Livehire through this framework. Livehire (LVH) was launched in 2012 and it promotes itself as a platform that connects employees and employers in a proactive way. Employers can build a network of prospective employees that they can… Continue Reading Livehire LVH – Understanding their platform
I would recommend you read Modern Monopolies by Alex Moazed. published in 2016. In it he unpacks with great detail the modern monopolies that we see in Facebook, Google, Tencent, Alibaba, Apple and Amazon to name a few. How they become what they are, not necessarily that they had the ‘first… Continue Reading Modern Monopolies – Australia’s aspiring platform businesses Part 1
As Peter Thiel spells out in his book Zero to One: “All happy companies are different: each one earns a monopoly by solving a unique problem. All failed companies are the same: they failed to escape competition”. Therefore his conclusion is competition is for losers. But there are plenty of… Continue Reading Pushpay (PPH) – Competition is for losers
This post is more about my thought process when I think about the intrinsic value of a company. I chose to use Hansen (HSN). Hansen has a range of software solutions that provide billing and and other support services for energy, telco and Pay TV industry. HSN builds long term… Continue Reading Hansen Tech (HSN) – Clients for Life
I used to do a lot of Macro trading, but after I had children I realised pretty quickly I can’t predict what they are going to do, so what chance do I have with predicting other complex systems? So its all been micro for awhile and it feels good not… Continue Reading I don’t do Macro anymore… but I watch.
Mark Leonard is not a name that many people are familiar with. He is not your rock star CEO that promotes his company or talks up his book. But he has build a reputation that will see him rank on par with some of the best capital allocators the world… Continue Reading Aconex (ACX) – What would Mark Leonard think?
The “Base rate” idea is simply the odds of something happening based on a sample or collection of prior evidence. Kahneman and Tversky did a lot of work on the idea of a base rate. Their work found that we tend to ignore the base rate when provided with other… Continue Reading Biotech Investing – Understanding the Base Rate
ZipMoney(ZML) provides merchants and customers an online digital alternative to a physical credit card. Zipmoney provides an interest free line of credit to consumers across a number of participating merchants. After the initial 3 month interest free period expires the outstanding customer balance reverts to an annualised 19.9% interest charge.… Continue Reading ZipMoney (ZML) – Some thoughts