Charley Ellis wrote a book years ago called Winning the Losers Game, essentially the main idea is that to win in investing we should focus on avoiding the losers. His idea was based on a book about professional tennis being a winners game, you win tennis by hitting more winners… Continue Reading Hugging the middle of the Performance Bell curve
Ordinarily I do not spend a lot of time on shares that have not made it through my first filter. Some companies are fairly obviously pretty smelly to start with and you can move on. But I thought I would start to dig deeper into Buddy after my first pass through when… Continue Reading Buddy.com – Cracking the Narrative
In a previous life I was a director of a solar company. Great story but wait. An important part of the business was monitoring energy and solar production both pre and post installation. For the not so tech savvy measuring power is really simple. Power you draw from the grid… Continue Reading Buddy (BUD) – Just a CT Clamp company?
Munger’s following quote is his classic model of inversion at work: “Frequently, you’ll look at a business having fabulous results. And the question is, ‘How long can this continue?’ Well, there’s only one way I know to answer that. And that’s to think about why the results are occurring now… Continue Reading Value chain power example – Vita Group (VTG)
I have been thinking a lot lately about retail as everyone has. The reaction by off-line retailers has been to create or up their online presence to compete with potential new threats coming their way. If I hear the word omni-channel marketing from another retailer I think I am going… Continue Reading Retail Online Platforms – Vertical or Horizontal?
Howard Marks talks a lot about never knowing what the future holds but he is a big believer in working out where the hell we are currently. This is a simple concept that we should apply to all forms of investing. The starting point for analysis is to work out… Continue Reading BigTinCan (BTH) – Current Unit Economics
I read an interesting slide deck by OpenView Partners which made the statement that only 0.1% of SaaS companies have a chance of reaching $100m in Annualised recurring revenue (ARR) by year 5 of operations. The sample size given was 5,000 SaaS companies in America. That is not to say… Continue Reading Some VC Saas Rules applied to XRO, BIG and GSW
A point I failed to mention in my last post on Baby Bunting (BBN) Can store roll-out still work? was be wary of analysis that shows a comparison of the current PE multiple against a long term average. Especially in retail or any industry that is seeing its business model changing.… Continue Reading Retail Store rollout – Additional comments
Retail is tough. One thing that has previously worked in the model has been the ability to reinvest profits from existing stores and expand out a network of new stores. Walmart in the US was a great example. Bunnings has been able to build out a big box store network in… Continue Reading Baby Bunting (BBN) – Can store roll-out still work?
The book Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari builds a theory that what connects us humans is the belief in a story. The story does not have to be real, in fact more often that not it contradicts with nature. How else do you get 5,000 crusaders who have no connection… Continue Reading Narrative Fallacy – What is the story worth?